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Fundamental Analysis

Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

Tuesday, July 30, 2019 - BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (JPY), CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)(USD), Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)(USD).Wednesday, July 31, 2019 - Manufacturing PMI (Jul)(CNY), CPI (QoQ)...

ECB Increases Focus on the Side-effects of NIRP, Warranting new Depths in Negative Rates

ECB’s statement and Draghi’s remarks at the press conference on Thursday set the stage for exploring new bottoms of NIRP, QE and other mitigation measures. But not surprisingly, they did not justify...

Reserve Currency Status as a Factor for Medium-term Dollar Decline

The status of reserve currency should be necessarily supported by an economic power of the issuing country as it makes possible for the currency to assume key functions of money - a means of payment...

A Rough Patch for Wall Street’s ‘Big Five’?

Morgan Stanley’s financial results were released on Sunday, completing the reporting of the five largest US banks for Q2, 2019. The data showed that the trading business of the banks have now...

US and Vietnam: from “Best Friends” to Trade Rivals?

Next possible leg of the trade war may affect countries that have emerged victorious at the expense of first victims. This assumption is explained by the fact that losing the accumulated trade and...

IEA’s Birol: Oil consumption forecast can be revised to the downside in the coming months

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut forecast for oil consumption in 2019 due to flattening growth of the global economy and persisting risks from trade standoff between US and China, said Fatih...

Key economic events and reports of the upcoming week

Tuesday, July 23, 2019 - Existing Home Sales (Jun)(USD).Wednesday, July 24, 2019 - German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)(EUR), New Home Sales (Jun)(USD), Crude Oil Inventories(USD).Thursday, July 25, 2019 -...

Fed Williams’ “Brilliant Failure” in Communication Sparked jolt on the Markets

After it became clear that the Fed is going to cut rates in July, market expectations had a room to develop only towards the most bearish outcome (50 bp cut), pressuring dollar and pushing safe...

Policy Bias in China: Fighting with Credit Leverage or Adding more Stimulus?

A key gauge of the debt burden in Chinese economy exceeded 300% of GDP, the Institute of International Finance reported. Beijing was forced to maintain the trajectory of undesirable debt...